DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index ("DTI") is a quarterly survey implemented by Hong Kong Productivity Council ("HKPC"), and commissioned by DHL Express (Hong Kong) Limited ("DHL").
DTI is the first-of-its-kind in Hong Kong, offering publicly available market intelligence for local enterprises, especially SMEs which typically have limited resources or access to information, enabling all to take reference from a comprehensive business review of the sector in which they operate.
The Overall Index represents the air trade market outlook for the surveying quarter, in respect of import and (re-)export. The research also studies the underlying trends in business attributes, markets and air-freighted commodities, thus assisting local enterprises in arriving at a primed view of the business outlook of their markets.
DTI - Second Quarter of 2018
Release Date: May 2, 2018
Various concerns have made Q2 a challenging period. However, fears over the negative impact of geopolitical tensions have given way to a series of positive developments.
- When the 2018 Q2 survey was conducted, President Donald Trump announced tariffs aimed at China, launching an escalating conflict and fueling concerns over a global trade war. Despite this, the latest DTI survey found widespread worry about air trade has been limited so far. In Q2, there was a downward adjustment in the overall air trade outlook to 49.5, which is slightly below the neutral point. Nonetheless, this figure is still higher than that seen in the same period last year.
- Presently, air imports are still in optimistic territory and they continue bolstering the overall outlook for air trade. The current score is 50.9 despite friction between the US and China.
- Hong Kong's considerable surplus will be used to better the lives of residents. It is generally believed that these measures will boost air imports, underlining domestic demand.
- Air exports are predicted to encounter challenges, and their score has fallen to 48.8. In the US, the Federal Reserve System is expected to hasten the pace of interest rate hikes, raising borrowing costs for businesses.
- Mr Gordon Lo, Director (Business Management) of the Hong Kong Productivity Council, said, "After notable growth in the last quarter, the Index has fallen back to the neutral level in this quarter. However, the market is still affected by various factors such as changes in monetary or tariff policies of different countries, evolving customer needs, and rising operating cost. Companies must avoid overfocusing on a single area or business, and formulate appropriate business strategies and countermeasures to cope with market changes. Riding on the trends of intelligent automation, advanced technologies should be introduced to enhance operation efficiency and customer service experience. Companies must also make use of big data to analyze market trend and launch innovative services whenever necessary. In addition, companies should strengthen workers' skills and knowledge and strive to become learning organizations for continuous growth."
Download of DTI Quarterly Report
Index Calculation: Index = [100 x (Percentage of samples responding "Positive") ] + [50 x (Percentage of samples responding "Neutral") ] + [0 x (Percentage of samples responding "Negative") ]
- Ratios of collected responses are used to form the indices.
- An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
- The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.
- Respondents are Hong Kong-based companies associated with either inbound or outbound air trade. It includes Watches, Clocks & Jewellery, Apparel & Clothing Accessories, Electronic Products & parts, Gifts, Toys & Houseware, Food & Beverage and Others (including courier service and other items which do not belong to the categories listed above).
- Over 600 samples are collected in each quarter.
- Sample companies are randomly selected from publicly available directories.
This report contains survey result based on research findings. HKPC will not be liable for any loss, mistake, delay, action or non-action by viewers of this report.